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Charts Archive

US Stocks Real Returns vs PEses log from 1960

The real stock market return over 17 year periods historically has the best correlation with the PEses (real price / simple exponentially smoothed real earnings). The chart shows the return for a 17 year period with the PEses at the beginning of the period. The red PEses scale or axis is inverted to show that [...]

US Stocks Real Returns vs PEses from 1960

The real stock market return over 17 year periods historically has the best correlation with the PEses (real price / simple exponentially smoothed real earnings). The chart shows the return for a 17 year period with the PEses at the beginning of the period. The green PEses scale or axis is inverted to show that [...]

US Stocks Real Returns vs PEses from 1890

The real stock market return over 17 year periods historically has the best correlation with the PEses (real price / simple exponentially smoothed real earnings). Longer or shorter periods have a weaker correlation. The chart shows the return for a 17 year period with the PEses at the beginning of the period. The green PEses [...]

US Stock Market Total Real vs Demographic Season from 1920

The black line shows the total real return index of the US stock market and a demographic index. The demographic index attempts to examine the ratio of people reaching the peak age of producing more than they consume vs. those in the peak age of consuming more than they produce. The peak earning, producing, saving [...]

US Stock Market Total Real Return from 1870

Each black data point in the graph represents a month in the stock market and is the average of the daily closing prices of the S&P 500 for that month adjusted for inflation by the consumer price index with dividends reinvested. The data before the existence of the S&P 500 was calculated by Cowles and [...]

US Stock Market Real from 1870

Each data point in the graph represents a month in the stock market and is the average of the daily closing prices of the S&P 500 for that month adjusted for inflation by the consumer price index. The data before the existence of the S&P 500 was calculated by Cowles and Associates using the methodology [...]

US Stock Market Real Earnings from 1870

Based on S&P Statistical Service as reported earnings and Cowles and Associates, Common Stock Indexes adjusted by the consumer price index. The blue line showing simple exponential smoothing (ses) of the real earnings is used to construct a price earnings ratio the advisor calls PEses.

US Stock Market from 1870

Each data point in the graph represents a month in the stock market and is the average of the daily closing prices of the S&P 500 for that month. The data before the existence of the S&P 500 was calculated by Cowles and Associates using the methodology of the S&P 500. In 1870 there were [...]

US Stock Market Earnings from 1870

Based on S&P Statistical service as reported earnings and Cowles and Associates, Common Stock Indexes. Most of the increased rate of growth in the modern era is due to inflation.

Treasury Bonds Total Real Return from 1870

This index shows the value of portfolio of long term Treasury Bond (T-Bonds) with reinvested interest adjusted for inflation. The modern trend of inflation reduced the real return on T-Bonds. The shaded areas show when inflation has reduced the purchasing power of the portfolio. The purchasing power was underwater from 1941 to 1987. At the [...]