This index shows the value of portfolio of Treasury Bills (T-Bills) with reinvested interest adjusted for inflation. The modern trend of inflation sharply reduced the real return on T-Bills. The shaded areas show when inflation has reduced the purchasing power of the portfolio. The purchasing power was underwater from 1933 to 1994.
This price earnings ratio uses the inflation adjusted stock price and simple exponential smoothing of inflation adjusted earnings. It is similar to the PE ratio Robert Shiller uses in his book Irrational Exuberance which is sometimes called PE10 or CAPE, meaning cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio. A PE ratio measures how much people are willing [...]
Money Supply growth probably exerts the greater influence on the rate of inflation than any other variable. This chart examines the correlation between the year-over-year rate of inflation with the two year rate of growth in M2. The strongest correlation is with M2 growth leading inflation by 32 months. The double digit bouts of inflation [...]
The consumer price index has had several bouts of high inflation. Prior to the1930s these bouts of inflation would be followed by significant deflation. Typically there would be inflation that would climax in a major war followed by deflation after the war. From 1750 to 1900 there was no upward trend in the price index. [...]
The chart shows the linear correlation of the top marginal tax rate and the capital gains tax rate with growth since 1984. The top tax rate has its best correlation leading growth 2 years. The capital gains tax rate has the best fit leading 5 years. The influences on growth of the two tax rates [...]
The top marginal tax rate and the capital gains tax rate appear to have leading curvilinear relationships with annual GDP growth since 1968. The correlations are shown as a scatter plot and a time-series. The top tax rate has its best correlation leading growth 2 years. The best curvilinear fit in the scatter plot suggests [...]
The inflation adjusted price of oil appears to lead annual GDP growth by about 17 months. It is not clear whether the stress that leads to a recession shows up 17 months earlier in a recession or whether high oil prices help precipitate an economic downturn, but virtually every recession in the last 50 years [...]
Housing starts per 1000 population have a significant correlation with annual GDP growth six months later. Generally less than 6 starts in a year per 1000 people represent a weak economy.
Auto and light truck sales per 1000 population have a significant correlation with annual GDP growth three months later. Generally less than 50 sales in a year per 1000 people represent a weak economy.
The shaded areas represent recession dates from the National Bureau of Economic Research (“NBER”), a private entity. Since 1933 the economy has been in recession about 16% of the time. Prior to 1933 recessions were about three times more prevalent occurring about 49% of the time. The annual growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) [...]
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